February new build fleet analysis
The slow start to the year continues with the projected order book beginning to look unrealistic…
Typically, we would expect the actual number of deliveries on any given year to be 10-20 per cent less than what the order book would suggest. This can be for any number of legitimate reasons, such as delayed payments on the part of owners, shipyards going into administration, pandemics and so on. However, with 245 superyachts scheduled for delivery in 2022, the ongoing strains of the pandemic, the sanctions against Russian owners and a host of other challenges relating to capacity and raw materials, 245 deliveries feel like a long way off indeed.
The above graph acutely highlights just how far the new build sector is from reaching its own target. With 16.7 per cent of the year having elapsed, only 1.6 per cent of scheduled deliveries have reached fruition, with their only having been four deliveries in total in 2022, two of which were in February. By contrast, 11.6 per cent of the scheduled launches have already been completed.
By contrast, the above graph highlights the performance so far of the individual sectors. When broken down like this, the 60-90m market actually appears to be performing quite well, having delivered or launched over half the deliveries scheduled for delivery in 2022. Equally, the 90m-plus sector appears to be on a strong trajectory to meet its target, notwithstanding these two sectors are the most likely to be significantly impacted by the crisis in Ukraine and the sanction of Russian owners.
It could be argued that January and February have not traditionally been the strongest months for deliveries, especially in recent years, however, by any metric the 2022 figures are way off the pace. Admittedly, it could be that we will see a flurry of activity over the course of 2022, but with various murmurings from within the industry about the various challenges slowing down production, this does not seem likely.
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