The next hundred years
After picking up a copy of George Friedman's book The Next Hundred Years, our blogging broker David Seal ponders what the future holds for the superyacht industry...…
For my flight back from FLIBS this year I grabbed the first book that looked remotely interesting from a bookshop in Miami Airport. The book was called The Next Hundred Years by George Friedman. To be truthful I thought it would be about hover cars and teleport devices, but it turned out to be a forecast of political events over the next 100 years based on a profound study of past events in human history. It was published in 2009 and has short term forecasts (like Russia trying to regain control of Ukraine before 2015) and long term forecasts (such as the emergence of Mexico as a major political force).
Making long term forecasts for the yachting industry of course is very easy, since we all know that in 100 years time global warming will force everybody to live on a yacht, land masses will become non-existent, and realtors will all become yacht brokers - creating a surge in the demand for floating benches on which to advertise.
Short term forecasts are a little more tricky, but here are my predictions for the yachting industry in 2015 ...
Yacht marketing: 2015 is likely to see the divide between successful boat shows and not-so-successful boat shows grow even further. The market really can’t support so many shows, and brokers and clients alike are voting with their feet by attending the ones they find beneficial and avoiding those they don’t. At the same time, broker-organised open days are growing in popularity in Europe and are likely to continue to do so. These open days are a fraction of the cost of a boat show but still allow brokers to view yachts available for sale all in the same port, network, and get the inside scoop on prices and availability.
Will new boat shows reign supreme in 2015?
Yacht brands: The global financial crisis has really shaken up the industry with many famous brands disappearing completely, others changing ownership and just one or two growing to take a very strong position. Most interesting of all though is the appearance of a few new brands that should be watched carefully in 2015. Three newer brands that I think are particularly worth keeping an eye on are Colombus by Palumbo, WIDER, Tilli Antonelli from Pershing's new company, and Dreamline by Peter Zuber of Dominator Yachts. Both Columbus and WIDER are offering the superyacht market innovative propulsion systems, hybrid in the case of Columbus and diesel electric from WIDER. Dreamline on the other hand offers a layout and build quality that might keep many production GRP yacht manufacturers on their toes.
Yacht destinations: I haven’t seen any figures to substantiate this, but it appears to me that explorer style yachts are becoming increasingly popular. This must be partly due to their fuel economy and range, but also it seems that yacht owners are venturing away from the traditional cruising grounds and want a yacht that can really go anywhere. The destinations they choose are not always tropical islands either, Norway and Alaska are becoming attractive to the super yacht owner since they offer spectacular natural scenery and the kind of tranquility that just can’t be found off the coast of Ibiza. If you’ve fallen out of love with yachting then maybe the solution is not to get out, but simply to change scenery?
Tracy Arm Alaska
The Next Hundred Years was written at a time that the author considered to be pivotal in human history. That can certainly be said about the yachting industry too, as we see new brands emerging, with new concepts and new ways of marketing their products. Where these changes will lead over the next hundred years nobody knows, but it’s great to be along for the ride for as long as I can hang on.
A yacht broker with Camper & Nicholsons International, David Seal has been working in the yachting industry for over 15 years and writes a blog charting his observations and experiences. To visit David's blog, Yachts for Sale: A Broker's Blog, click here.
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